On the night of 11th September, everyone in the country had their eyes glued to the TV screens, not to mention a large portion of more technologically-savvy people refreshing social media accounts. It was not long before the Sample Poll came in to give almost all opposition supporters a rude shock: a surprising swing towards the PAP.
Sample Poll Results:
ALJUNIED GRC: PAP 48% WP 52%
ANG MO KIO GRC: PAP 78% RP 22%
BISHAN-TOA PAYOH GRC: PAP 74% SPP 26%
BUKIT BATOK SMC: PAP 74% SDP 26% Independent 0%
BUKIT PANJANG SMC: SDP 31% PAP 69%
CHUA CHU KANG GRC: PAP 76% PPP 24%
EAST COAST GRC: WP 39% PAP 61%
FENGSHAN SMC: PAP 57% WP 43%
HOLLAND-BUKIT TIMAH GRC: SDP 34% PAP 66%
HONG KAH NORTH SMC: PAP 74% SPP 26%
HOUGANG SMC: PAP 42% WP 58%
JALAN BESAR GRC: WP 33% PAP 67%
JURONG GRC: PAP 78% SGF 22%
MACPHERSON SMC: WP 36% NSP 1% PAP 63%
MARINE PARADE GRC: PAP 65% WP 35%
MARSILING-YEW TEE GRC: SDP 31% PAP 69%
MOUNTBATTEN SMC: SPP 28% PAP 72%
NEE SOON GRC: WP 33% PAP 67%
PASIR RIS-PUNGGOL GRC: SDA 27% PAP 73%
PIONEER SMC: PAP 78% NSP 22%
POTONG PASIR SMC: SPP 32% PAP 68%
PUNGGOL EAST SMC: PAP 51% WP 49%
RADIN MAS SMC: Independent 9% RP 14% PAP 77%
SEMBAWANG GRC: NSP 28% PAP 72%
SENGKANG WEST SMC: WP 37% PAP 63%
TAMPINES GRC: PAP 72% NSP 28%
TANJONG PAGAR GRC: SGF 22% PAP 78%
WEST COAST GRC: PAP 78% RP 22%
YUHUA SMC: PAP 72% SDP 28%
And with that sample poll, it devastated about 30% of the eligible voters. Even though I am not an eligible voter this election, I was taken aback. Even for the half of us at my friend’s house where we were watching the results at, we couldn’t believe the statistics that were officially presented to us through the media.
“Let’s wait for the official results.” I reassured the rest, at the time when I didn’t realise how accurate this sample poll can be.
We waited anxiously, and the official results came to.
It gave us the second and final shock of the night. The sample poll proved to be so accurate.
Click here for graphic details for the GE2015 results, while we look at the overview on the election below:
If we were to compare the overall results with the last election in 2011, the PAP had actually garnered 70.58%, a close to 10% swing in its favour. The vote counts did not match the sentiments of the people that the country had witnessed over the past few years. People were angry and you could see many of them streaming into the fields where oppositions were having their rallies during campaigning period.
It might be possible that they are just the minority, the total turn-ups at opposition rallies are basically a few of these 30%. The rest are probably the ‘silent majority’.
While I recover from the shock, like many other Singaporeans do, supporters of either camps, I took time to discuss and reflect on this swing.
So, what happened?
1. The Death of Lee Kuan Yew
Believe it or not, the death of the Elder Lee has actually caused a swing in ideological thinking way back in March. Many of those on the fence leaned towards the PAP since that week of mourning. People are more sympathetic towards the ruling party because they feel that they owe the great man something which such feelings was then transmitted to the Party itself. They knew this nation could not do without the PAP and there is no way any other parties, including the Workers’ Party can be assured of the power to rule the country.
2. Returning to its centre-left roots by the PAP
Many of the recent policies introduced by the PAP government seems to be a sign of it returning to its centre-left roots. The PAP was founded in 1954 as a centre-left party with many leftists and socialists in its ranks. However, as time went past, over the next 60 years, PAP is moving towards the right side of the political spectrum. It is until recently that the policies pushed out by the party seems to be pulling it leftwards, which helps in increasing its popularity among voters.
The introduction of the Pioneer Generation package, Proximity Housing Grant (which will give anyone who buys their house near to their parents S$20,000) and the Baby Bonus Scheme are definitely popular with the people.
3. Unpopular Behaviors from anti-government activists/sympathizers
Remember Amos Yee? Or even people like Roy Ngerng and Han Huihui? Unlike the former, both Roy and Huihui were actually candidates in the opposition camp, contesting against the incumbent PAP candidates.
Han Huihui at ‘Return Our CPF’ protest (Image: Redwiretimes)
Amos Yee (Image: The Straits Times)
The support of Han Huihui and Roy Ngerng was still intact until this particular incident that dwindle their support, and what’s worse? They were up for public scrutinizing.
Amos Yee fared worse. His daring criticism towards founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew during the national week of mourning was untimely and disrespectful. It drew a series of backlashes and of course, a slap outside the court. All of the above has actually led to a serious question: Are these what oppositions are championing?
4. Unstable and weak Oppositions
While we are on the topic of oppositions, we have to admit that most of the oppositions are weak, apart from WP and maybe to a certain extend, the SDP. Looking at the results, it is obvious that many of the GRCs are won at 70% and above, especially in Jurong, West Coast, Ang Mo Kio and Tanjong Pagar. These 4 constituencies reflects PAP’s best wins. Not to discredit any parties, but these were contested by the Reform Party and SingFirst. It is time for us to really face the fact that many of the candidates lacks the credibility and caliber to even be in policy making.
Marine Parade MP-elect Goh Chok Tong was not wrong to have claimed that some oppositions were ‘nomads’. Most of them appears just once every 4-5 years, while some, contested, lost and then disappear forever.
Meanwhile, the continued emphasis on the AHPETC financial issue had left voters doubtful over the ability of oppositions being in charge of financial issues.
Before I end this part, let’s not mention we have jokers like this:
5. Narrow Economy Growth
The Ministry of Trade & Industry (MTI) reported in mid-August that the economy contracted by 4% this quarter. This has proved to be a major point for consideration among electors who are investors themselves. During times of economy turn down, it is proved that voters will tend to be confident of the PAP to stabilize the economy.
The Coffeeshop Talk 